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Hong Baoli (002165): 19Q1 outstanding performance comes pre-increasing turning point

Hong Baoli (002165): 19Q1 outstanding performance comes pre-increasing turning point
The event company released its 2018 annual report. The company achieved revenue in 2018 of 24.67 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.63%; net profit attributable to mothers was 29.08 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.91%.At the same time, the company announced the 2019 Q1 operating performance forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers in Q1 2019 will be about 19-20 million yuan; an annual increase of 539% -589%. Brief comment on the recovery of rigid foam polyether profit, the turning point in performance will reach the company’s revenue in 201824.67 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.63%, from the perspective of business structure, rigid foam polyether achieved revenue of 15%.450,000 yuan, accounting for 63%, an annual increase of 16%; in addition, alcohol amines achieve revenue of 7.970,000 yuan, accounting for 32%, an annual increase of 12%; high-flame-retardant insulation board realized revenue of 16.84 million yuan, accounting for 1%, and gradually decreased by 56.61%.The net profit attributable to mothers was 29.08 million yuan, a decrease of 28 per year.91%, mainly due to the increase in the price of raw and auxiliary materials, resulting in increased production costs and the impact of changes in the RMB exchange rate.At the same time, the company expects that the net profit attributable to mothers will be approximately 19-20 million yuan in the first quarter of 2019; after that, it will increase by 539% -589%.As a result of lower costs and a marked rise in profits, a turning point in performance has already occurred. After 30 years of development, the leading polyether industry leader is the absolute leader in the domestic rigid foam combined polyether industry. It has maintained long-term strategic cooperation with Midea, Hisense, Electrolux, CIMC and other refrigerators and freezers manufacturers.The single champion of the rigid foam combination polyether industry demonstrates its technical strength and industry influence.At present, it has 15 indicator rigid foam combination polyethers and 9 alternative amine amine capacities (one iso, two iso, three iso 4 replacement, and modification 5 replacement); it has been actively expanding upstream, and the recent 12 PO units have been successfully commissioned.The degree of industrial chain integration has been further improved. For rigid foam polyether, the penetration rate of high-end refrigerators will increase in the future, the development of cold chain logistics, and the promotion of polyurethane building insulation boards will bring more demand to the industry.The company has a market share of more than 25% in the field of refrigerator rigid foam polyethers. It has strong R & D capabilities and technical service 杭州夜生活网 capabilities. Its production and sales have increased year by year, and its brand recognition has continued to increase.In terms of pyridylamine, the product has excellent performance and strong environmental friendliness. The global market demand for polyphenolethanolamine is a potential market space.The company has the largest production capacity in the country, occupying important markets at home and abroad, and its production and sales have increased steadily.The rise in raw material prices since 17 years has directly reduced the profit margin. Recently, with the decline in raw material prices, the profitability of the main business is expected to continue to gradually recover. 12 The annual commissioning of PO devices brings significant profit increase. PO capacity has been 327 tons, the output has been US $ 263, the apparent consumption has been measured at 286, the net import is 23 tons, the external dependence is 8%, and the operating rate has remained at 80%Above, the supply pattern is still tight.Due to the poor environmental friendliness and continuous improvement, the chlorohydrin process, which accounts for more than 50% of domestic production capacity, is no longer allowed to be built; the PO / SM process needs to be equipped with large-scale refining and chemical plants; the by-products of the PO / MTBE process are difficult to digest;The cost is relatively high, and the promotion of the three new technologies is slow. It is expected that the tight balance of PO supply will continue in the future, and high profitability will be maintained. Company 12’s first PO plant uses a new process that replaces the benzene co-oxidation method. It has been successfully commissioned in January 19 and has qualified products.With the commissioning of the PO device, the future imagination space is opened: 1) Eat the upstream profits of the industrial chain into the body, increase the ability to resist risks, and increase the profit volume; 2) The company purchases PO from Shandong at present, and can save about 300 yuan per ton in the future.3) After the success of the device, it will expand the production of 30 new POs at the same time, and it will also support downstream high-end polyethers to achieve the continuous development of the industrial chain. The marginal improvement of the investment proposal is imminent, and it is recommended to pay attention to it. It is expected that in 2019 and 2020, net profit attributable to mothers will be realized.28, 1.970,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.21, 0.33 yuan, corresponding to PE 22, 16 times, giving an “overweight” rating.